The Prophecies about the Messiah and the Laws of Probability

    Of the many hundreds of prophecies concerning the promised Messiah, some four dozen are quite specific. Including several of the prophecies already mentioned, the following is an analysis of eleven messianic predictions made more than four hundred years before they were fulfilled.
    The odds I have assigned in this chapter are obviously arbitrary estimates. Some of my readers will find that the odds I have suggested are too liberal or too conservative in some cases. What odds would you assign for the accuracy of these predictions coming true by chance, rather than by divine sovereignty? If you have other suggestions for the odds for any particular predictions, substitute your own estimates and recalculate the mathematical probabilities that these eleven prophecies were fulfilled by chance alone. Regardless of your estimates, the combined mathematical probabilities are staggering.

The Eleven Predictions: The Odds Against This Occurring

The promised Messiah would:

1. Be born in Bethlehem  
Probability: 1 in 200

Old Testament Prediction: “But thou, Bethlehem Ephratah, though thou be little among the thousands of Judah, yet out of thee shall he come forth unto me that is to be ruler in Israel” (Micah 5 2).
New Testament Fulfillment: “Jesus was born in Bethlehem of Judea in the days of Herod the King” (Matthew 2:1).

2. Be preceded by a messenger  
Probability: 1 in 20

Old Testament Prediction: “The voice of him that crieth in the wilderness, Prepare ye the way of the Lord, make straight in the desert a highway for our God” (Isaiah 40:3).
New Testament Fulfillment: “In those days came John the Baptist, preaching in the wilderness of Judea, and saying, Repent ye: for the kingdom of heaven is at hand” (Matthew 3:1–2).

3. Enter Jerusalem on a colt  
Probability: 1 in 50

Old Testament Prediction: “Rejoice greatly, O daughter of Zion; shout, O daughter of Jerusalem: behold, thy King cometh unto thee: he is just, and having salvation; lowly, and riding upon an ass, and upon a colt the foal of an ass” (Zechariah 9:9).
New Testament Fulfillment: “And they brought him to Jesus: and they cast their garments upon the colt, and they set Jesus thereon. And as he went, they spread their clothes in the way. And when he was come nigh, even now at the descent of the mount of Olives, the whole multitude of the disciples began to rejoice and praise God with a loud voice for all mighty works that they had seen” (Luke 19:35–37).

4. Be betrayed by a friend  
Probability: 1 in 10

Old Testament Prediction: “Yea, mine own familiar friend, in whom I trusted, which did eat of my bread, hath lifted up his heel against me” (Psalms 41:9).
New Testament Fulfillment: “And while he yet spake, lo, Judas, one of the twelve, came, and with him a great multitude with swords and staves, from the chief priests and elders of the people. Now he that betrayed him gave them a sign, saying, Whomsoever I shall kiss, that same is he; hold him fast.… And Jesus said unto him, ‘Friend, wherefore art thou come?’ ” (Matthew 26:47–50)

5. Have His hands and feet pierced  
Probability: 1 in 100

Old Testament Prediction: “The assembly of the wicked have enclosed me: they pierced my hands and my feet” (Psalm 22:16).
New Testament Fulfillment: “And when they were come to the place, which is called Calvary, there they crucified him, and the malefactors, one on the right hand, and the other on the left” (Luke 23:33).

6. Be wounded and whipped by His enemies 
Probability: 1 in 25

Old Testament Prediction: “But he was wounded for our transgressions, he was bruised for our iniquities: the chastisement of our peace was upon him; and by his stripes we are healed” (Isaiah 53:5).
New Testament Fulfillment: “Then released he Barabbas unto them: and when he had scourged Jesus, he delivered him to be crucified” (Matthew 27:26).

7. Be sold for thirty pieces of silver  
Probability: 1 in 100

Old Testament Prediction: “And I said unto them, If ye think good, give me my price; and if not, forbear. So they weighed for my price thirty pieces of silver” (Zechariah 11:12).
New Testament Fulfillment: “What will ye give me, and I will deliver him unto you? And they covenanted with him for thirty pieces of silver” (Matthew 26:15).

8. Be spit upon and beaten  
Probability: 1 in 10

Old Testament Prediction: “I gave my back to the smilers, and my cheeks to them that plucked off the hair: I hid not my face from shame and spitting” (Isaiah 50:6).
New Testament Fulfillment: “Then did they spit in his face, and buffeted him; and others smote him with the palms of their hands” (Matthew 26:67).

9. Have betrayal money thrown in the Temple and given for a potter’s field  
Probability: 1 in 200

Old Testament Prediction: “And the Lord said unto me, Cast it unto the potter: a goodly price that I was prized at of them. And I took the thirty pieces of silver and cast them to the potter in the house of the Lord” (Zechariah 11:13).
New Testament Fulfillment: “And he cast down the pieces of silver in the temple, and departed, and went and hanged himself. And the chief priests took the silver pieces, and said, It is not lawful for to put them into the treasury, because it is the price of blood. And they took counsel, and bought with them the potter’s field, to bury strangers in” (Matthew 27: 5–7).

10. Be silent before His accusers  
Probability: 1 in 100

Old Testament Prediction: “He was oppressed, and he was afflicted, yet he opened not his mouth: he is brought as a lamb to the slaughter, and as a sheep before her shearers is dumb, so he openeth not his mouth” (Isaiah 53:7).
New Testament Fulfillment: “And when he was accused of the chief priests and elders, he answered nothing. Then said Pilate unto him, Hearest thou not how many things they witness against thee? And he answered him never a word; insomuch that the governor marvelled greatly” (Matthew 27:12–14).

11. Be crucified with thieves  
Probability: 1 in 100

Old Testament Prediction: “He hath poured out his soul unto death: and he was numbered with the transgressors; and he bare the sin of many and made intercession for the transgressors” (Isaiah 53:12).
New Testament Fulfillment: “Then were there two thieves crucified with him, one on the right hand, and another on the left” (Matthew 27:38).

The Combined Probability:
One chance in 10 to the 19th power
or
One chance in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000

    In other words, there is only one chance in 10 billion times a billion that the prophets could have accurately predicted these eleven specific prophecies by chance alone, or that any one man’s life could fulfill these detailed prophecies by chance alone; in fact, it is obviously impossible!
    Regarding the estimates I have given for the probability of these specific events occurring purely by chance, let us consider the first prophecy of Micah’s that was written more than seven hundred years before its fulfillment, that the promised Messiah would be born in the insignificant village of Bethlehem. I have assigned a probability of one chance in two hundred to the possibility of Israel’s King being born in this little village by chance alone. In Israel, as in all other countries with monarchies, virtually all of the kings were born in their capital, Jerusalem, and almost never in a small agricultural village.
    Let us assume then that the odds of a king being born in the countryside rather than in the capital city are one in ten, which is a very conservative estimate. Since Israel had thousands of small villages, the odds against picking the correct village by chance alone, are conservatively one in one thousand. Therefore, to be realistic, the odds against correctly predicting the birthplace of the promised King are one in ten (the odds on the capital versus a rural village); to this figure we multiply one chance in one thousand (the odds on picking the right village). This produces a combined probability of one chance in ten thousand. However, in an attempt to be very conservative, I have assigned the probability as only one chance in two hundred, instead of one chance in ten thousand, a figure which could easily be justified.
    The prophecy of Jesus having “his hands and feet pierced,” for example, is given odds of 1 in 100. This prediction in the Psalms was made more than five hundred years before the Roman Empire invented crucifixion as an unusual and barbaric method of execution. The prophecy that He would be wounded and whipped by his enemies is given odds of 1 in 25. This also is very conservative in that few kings in history have been subjected to whipping by their enemies. The prophecy of His silence before His accusers is given odds of 1 in 100. The number of leaders and teachers who have been unjustly accused and executed, and who have chosen to remain silent and not defend themselves, is minuscule. Even if we were guilty, most of us would loudly defend ourselves against our accusers if we were faced with torture, whipping, and death by agonizing crucifixion, let alone if we, like Christ, were innocent of the charges.
    Another point should be considered by those who are mathematically inclined and who feel that my assigned probabilities are too high. Even if you assign the most conservative numbers possible to these combined prophetic probabilities about the life of Jesus the Messiah, you will still be confronted with a probability so staggering in its magnitude that it is impossible to honestly convince yourself that these things occurred by chance. In the unlikely event that you are still not convinced, you should consider that we have listed only eleven of the forty-eight major prophecies given in the Old Testament about the promised Messiah.

Jeffrey, Grant R.. Armageddon: Appointment with Destiny (pp. 26-32).
The Crown Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.